Going to be a quick and easy one today…
 
Nothing is going on in the Tropical Atlantic right now, and that should continue for a week or so, when the GFS indicates we could see something start to develop.
 
The Deepwater Horizon oil well appears to still be capped, and all we can do is hope it stays that way until the relief wells are complete.
 
The summer weather pattern continues in Florida, with plenty of warm weather and a chance for storms in the afternoon.
 
That about covers it for today, hate to thumb my nose at the prediction of an active hurricane season, since it can spin up real fast, but luckily it has been fairly calm so far.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will push through the Florida Keys during the day today, potentially with winds in the 50MPH range and plenty of rain. Most of the Forecast Models keep this system as a minimal Tropical Storm or less, none predict it will become a hurricane. Bonnie will move through quickly, and by Saturday the weather in South Florida should begin to improve. In fact, by Monday the Storm will have made her 2nd landfall.
 

Things have picked back up in the Tropics, TD 3 has formed in the southern Bahamas, and threatens to pass over the Keys as Tropical Storm Bonnie. Right now none of the forecast models show this system gaining hurricane strength, in fact most models predict a far weaker system, though I would keep a close eye on this system as it moves northwest over the next few days. This system looks like will move into the Florida Keys on Friday, so I will be watching this storm closely and updating as needed. The Bahamas and much of South Florida is under a Tropical Storm Warning at this time.

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BP now claims the Deepwater Horizon well has been shut off, though discussion about oil seeping up from a potentially damaged casing is also present. Either way, one can hope the flow has been so significantly reduced that the years of cleaning up and waiting for nature to recover from this disaster can now begin.
 

After today I will be mostly unavailable until July 20th, so unless a significant storm threatens Florida, this will be my last post until then. You can always visit the Tropical Weather Section of South Florida Stormwatch for Tropical Weather Information though.

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Things look like they might calm down in the Tropics over the short term. Time for the area of invest (96L) to become a Tropical Storm is limited, and conditions for development are only marginally favorable right now. We may see this system start to organize before moving over land, but I do not currently believe we are going to see a named storm from this area. The Long Range GFS does show a few areas that might be worth watching, but nothing that should affect the United States during the next week.

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Still not a lot of new information to report on the oil spill… Offshore forecasts are no longer being put out, along with a statement that only small amounts of oil exist away from the main slick, and no significant reports of oil offshore have been made recently. On the other hand, an admission that in addition to the large areas of coastline from Texas to Florida that already have, or almost certainly will be affected by the oil, there is a better than 50% chance that the Florida Keys and West Coast may see oil before August.