I know the main topic here has been the GOM Oil Spill, but Hurricane Season is only days away now, so it is time to get prepared and restock your emergency supplies. South Florida StormWatch has improved our Tropical Weather Coverage significantly since last year with more information, better blog post linking and a Tropical Weather Main Section. Don’t forget to bookmark these pages for easy access when we start to see Tropical Activity begin over the coming weeks. Though I will continue to post information about the Oil Spill, the start of Tropical Season also brings a transition to when posts are made on the South Florida StormWatch Blog… As you may have noticed, currently I have been posting mainly one time per week and usually on Thursday… During the Atlantic Hurricane Season these weekly updates will give way to storm specific and frequently updated posts when an active system or specific area of interest exists.
2010 Tropical Cyclone Names:
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
Let’s take a look at the following pictures and see what information they provide… The top picture shows us that an ‘Eddy Current’ has started to break off from the ‘Loop Current’, and while still not fully independent from the main flow of the Loop Current, I think it is only a matter of time before this ‘Warm Core Eddy’ begins to drift away from the Loop Current (though it is still possible for the Eddy to simply rejoin the Loop). This brings about a significant change in the movement of water within the GOM, specifically the area of the Oil Slick. Previously, the Loop Current extended well to the North, and was almost certainly gulping in oil from the spill before moving it South into the Florida Straights and eventually the Gulf Stream. This Eddy Current, which you can sort of compare to a ‘Hurricane’ in the water, creates sort of a ‘closed loop’ and may slow the amount of oil that would otherwise certainly be carried south by the Loop Current… How much of an affect and how long it might last depends on a lot of factors, a best case scenario for Florida would be that the Eddy Current drifts slowly to the NorthWest, the Loop Current remains to the South and, of course, those morons at BP plug the well soon.
Oil from the Deepwater Horizon Spill has now moved into the loop current. Additionally, the wind and current forecasts seem to indicate it may be days, if not a week, before the spill might be pushed back far enough to the north that it will no longer be entrained into the loop current. This could be bad news for Florida, and perhaps even other areas along the Eastern seaboard (and beyond) since the oil will be transported to these areas by the ocean currents. Trying to pin down the exact locations oil may turn up is hardly possible, nobody seems to know what will really happen to this oil. Instead let’s take a look at the loop current, the Gulf Stream and the other ocean currents to get an idea of the general path the oil is going to follow.
The picture below clearly shows that the oil is caught up in an eddy current that is drawing it to the south and into the loop current…
The picture below shows the complex eddy currents created by the loop current and that the oil is certainly being affected by these forces.
The picture below gives you a much better idea of how the loop current works (and why it is called a loop current). Warm water flowing in from the Caribbean ‘loops’ up into the Gulf of Mexico and then flows out through the Florida Straits. The picture also shows that Southwest Florida is somewhat protected from the flow of surface water due the shape of the ocean floor and other factors that tend to create a dominant offshore flow. However, it also clearly shows that the Florida Keys and much of Southeast Florida now lays directly in the future path of the oil.
The final picture gives an overview of the main ocean currents in the Atlantic Basin. Once the flow of water leaves the Florida Straits it is in the Gulf Stream, which runs up the east coast of the United States. It also shows that once the oil moves through it will not simply flow away up to the north and become someone else’s problem, instead, up to 50% of the flow of the gulf stream will end up circulating back into the Western Atlantic and much of that may come right back into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
It looks like the next chance for rain in Southwest Florida starts on Sunday and increases as we enter the work week, until then we can expect the warm and sunny conditions to continue. Hurricane season is also just over two weeks away, and indications are that is will be an active season. In sharp contract to what people in Florida might think, the cold winter we experienced did not cool the tropical waters, which are in fact warmer than average for this time of the year. That, and improving conditions for hurricane formation with the current El Niño expected to end by the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season could spell an active season this year.
The top story is still the unchecked oil leak at the Deepwater Horizon Facility. The previous attempt to contain the leak ended in failure, and right now it look to me as if they have no idea what to do next. Worse still, the winds are expected to push the spill toward the Mississippi coast over the next week. It appears this may end up being the worst spill in US history, and is almost certain to be the most costly.
Over 200,000 gallons of crude oil per day is still leaking into the northern Gulf, though it sounds like they are going to try and begin catching the oil with some contraption they dreamed up… Hopefully the device will be successful though, because it also appears this is what they have right now and no realistic short term plan B even exists. The damage is probably unavoidable at this point anyway, and with an active hurricane season predicted this spill could foul the coastline and economy of large sections of the GOM and beyond. The stakes are high with this one, all the stops need to be pulled out and whatever feeble and perhaps futile means we possess to minimize the damage should be utilized.
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