QUICK UPDATE – 6/30/10 @ 11:45 AM
I had hoped to provide a more detailed update on Alex at this time, instead I am going to have to make it fairly brief… Luckily, not much has changed, Alex is still expected to make landfall south of the Texas/Mexico border late tonight and into the early morning hours on Thursday. What has changed is the anticipated intensity of the storm, which has now been upgraded to a CAT2 at landfall. Regardless if it is a strong CAT1 or even a CAT2, the event is not going to be pleasant for those who remain in harms way, so if I was in extreme Southern Texas I would keep my guard up and monitor this storm closely. Unless something changes with the path or strength of Alex, this will be my final update on this storm. Stay safe everyone.

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QUICK UPDATE – 6/29/10 @ 10:45 PM
Alex becomes the first Hurricane of the Atlantic Season…
Our first named storm also becomes the first Hurricane, and with the forecast models apparently in fair agreement on the track now, it also looks like we will see a CAT1 storm making landfall near the Texas/Mexico border. I will be taking a closer look at all the data in the morning and will post a complete update before noon. Until then, those in south Texas should certainly be keeping an eye on this system.

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POSTED – 6/26/10 @ 1:00 PM
Just a quick update on the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season… Alex has yet to develop a well organized core and is probably not going to make Hurricane status before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, where it will obviously lose strength. The latest forecasts have also moved the track South and West of previous runs, though this could change. Once the storm moves out over the Gulf of Mexico we should get a better idea what the actual path will be. I will monitor the progression of Alex and update this post as needed.

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It looks like the Atlantic Basin may have it’s first named storm of the season brewing in the Caribbean right now… I really doubt Florida will be affected, and some obstacles could easily prevent this system from reaching Tropical Storm intensity, but conditions for development are expected to improve and some warm water lies in the projected path of this disturbance. I suspect it all depends on if the system moves through the Yucatan Channel, if it does we have a good chance that things will organize and pick up speed fairly quickly over the next several days. On the other hand, should the area track over Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula, development would be hampered without doubt. I will keep an eye on this, and should the system begin to deepen, allowing for more reliable model guidance, I will post an update.
 
The oil gushing into the Gulf (now estimated to be over 2 million gallons daily), continues nearly unabated. In fact, BP removed the containment cap for some time, citing safety concerns due to an unexpected discharge of seawater from a diverter valve as the reason for the removal of the cap. Now I may be off base, but I would think the time to put safety first was when not one person on that rig tripped the blowout preventer in the first place. To be honest, I don’t care if they pump it right onto the decks of ships and take it back to Great Britain now, so long as they keep it out of the Gulf of Mexico.

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Things in the Tropical Atlantic remain tranquil, the Invest currently being monitored is not expected to develop, and nothing new is anticipated through the weekend at least.
 
Even though a second ‘hose’ has been connected and is bringing oil to the surface, every indication is that the vast majority of the oil continues to leak into the GOM. It is also very likely this will continue to be the case until the relief wells are complete. The main slick, which had already reached Pensacola, is expected to drift Eastward and, tragically, will almost certainly reach Panama City within a few days. Forecasts for the offshore oil now predict oil will be carried by the Loop Current out through the Florida Straights and into the Gulf Stream. Though one can assume the level of impact to these areas should be less than what is being experienced on the Northern Gulf Coast, it is not good news for the Florida Keys or the East Coast.

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Not much is going on in the Tropics, and we can expect that trend to continue through the weekend at least. The only real feature to discuss is a Tropical Wave producing some convection as it approaches the eastern edge of the Caribbean Basin… Conditions for development are not favorable and it is unlikely we will see any significant weather produced by this wave. In fact, we may see a slow period that could last several more weeks before things start to pick up, in what is still expected to be a very active Hurricane Season.
 
Oil continues to gush into the GOM, even with the ‘successful’ installation of the containment device on June 3rd. Plans to increase the amount of oil being captured do continue… First, BP intends on using the ‘hose’ initially taken down to attempt the failed ‘junk shot’ as a means to bring more oil to surface ships. Another idea is to install a new riser, bringing the oil up to within perhaps 300 feet of the surface, which is a much friendlier environment to work in and could allow more options, especially if the operation needs to bail from the area due to Tropical Weather. Still, the leak is almost certainly going to continue until at least August, when the relief wells should be ready.

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