Posted 10/5/09 @ 3:00 PM EDT
 
Well look at that, Tropical Storm GRACE appears from nowhere out in the NorthEast Atlantic… This system has already made it’s closest pass to land, bringing 40mph winds to the Azores. It is moving swiftly NorthEast into the cold and lonely waters of the North Atlantic and should be winding down quickly.
 
The other area of interest, the Tropical Wave located about 900 miles East of the Caribbean, looks to be slowly getting better organized. While the models are not indicating development of this area, it is over very warm water, shear is low and expected to remain low for the next several days, plus the only dry air is far to the North of this area. What does that mean and where would any Tropical System developing here go? This Wave is currently poorly organized, so the first thing we should be watching for is a change in that pattern, it has popped off convection and died back a few times in the last couple of days. Conditions are in fact good for development in this area though and movement should be perhaps slightly North of West over the next several days, bringing it close to the Caribbean before shear starts to increase again. I will be keeping an eye on this area and will update as needed, until then take care and stay safe.