000
FXUS62 KTBW 072356
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
756 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...AT 745 PM EDT DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IN RUSKIN WAS SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION...RIDING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THE COLLISION BETWEEN EARLY AFTERNOON ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS...MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM PALM HARBOR AND DOWN THROUGH ENGLEWOOD. A BRIEF FUNNEL
CLOUD WAS REPORTED WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OLDSMAR AROUND 615 PM.

THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME
SHOWERS WERE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND SOME COASTAL
AREAS FROM TAMPA BAY DOWN TO PORT CHARLOTTE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...AND SHOULD BE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY 20/30 POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AROUND
COASTAL AREAS...MAINLY TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD.

OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FROM 215 PM EDT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE RIDGING ALOFT THE REGION WILL HANG IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DROPS TO LATITUDE 30 NORTH WED
AND THEN BETWEEN LATITUDE 30 AND 25 BY THU...RIDGING ACROSS FL TO
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL BY A DEGREE OR TWO THE DOMINATE FACTOR WILL BE THE SURFACE
RIDGE MAINTAINING A MOIST...WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO OVER 2
INCH RANGE...EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. THE GRADIENT DOES RELAX
AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND ALLOWS AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TO FORM BOTH WED AND THU. AFTERNOON POPS WILL STAY IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE...WITH THE BEST ODDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WED
AND THEN THE INTERIOR THU WHEN THE SEA BREEZE MAKES MORE PROGRESS
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS
REMAINING FROM THE EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE END OF THE WEEK. PERIODS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON...BUT STILL THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND KEEPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE
COASTLINE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...22/AR
SHORT TERM...09/RUDE
AVIATION...69/CLOSE